Markus Raab

Abstract Previous research has shown that changes in shot difficulty may have rendered the hot-hand effect in basketball unobservable and are potentially a result of defensive adjustments. However, it has not been directly analysed whether strategic changes indeed take place in response to streakiness and whether they are effective with respect to winning games. The current work consists of an experimental study with 18 professional coaches and 20 players based on video sequences from National Basketball Association games, where the shown player displayed a streaky performance in half of the sequences. While coaches were asked to devise a defensive strategy after each viewed sequence, players had to assume the role of the shown player and decide whether to shoot or pass the ball. We find that coaches tended to increase the defensive pressure significantly more often on presumably hot players and thus make use of the hot-hand heuristic. Meanwhile, players chose to shoot more frequently in low-pressure and streaky situations but selected "pass" regardless of the previous performance when they faced increased defensive pressure. Assuming that a streaky player's performance is indeed elevated during hot phases, hot-hand behaviour can be considered adaptive in certain situations as it led hot players to pass instead of shoot.

We examined the effectiveness of video-based decision training in national youth handball teams. Extending previous research, we tested in Study 1 whether a three-dimensional (3D) video training group would outperform a two-dimensional (2D) group. In Study 2, a 3D training group was compared to a control group and a group trained with a traditional tactic board. In both studies, training duration was 6 weeks. Performance was measured in a pre- to post-retention design. The tests consisted of a decision-making task measuring quality of decisions (first and best option) and decision time (time for first and best option). The results of Study 1 showed learning effects and revealed that the 3D video group made faster first-option choices than the 2D group, but differences in the quality of options were not pronounced. The results of Study 2 revealed learning effects for both training groups compared to the control group, and faster choices in the 3D group compared to both other groups. Together, the results show that 3D video training is the most useful tool for improving choices in handball, but only in reference to decision time and not decision quality. We discuss the usefulness of a 3D video tool for training of decision-making skills outside the laboratory or gym.

Previous research has shown that changes in shot difficulty may have rendered the hot-hand effect in basketball unobservable and are potentially a result of defensive adjustments. However, it has not been directly analysed whether strategic changes indeed take place in response to streakiness and whether they are effective with respect to winning games. The current work consists of an experimental study with 18 professional coaches and 20 players based on video sequences from National Basketball Association games, where the shown player displayed a streaky performance in half of the sequences. While coaches were asked to devise a defensive strategy after each viewed sequence, players had to assume the role of the shown player and decide whether to shoot or pass the ball. We find that coaches tended to increase the defensive pressure significantly more often on presumably hot players and thus make use of the hot-hand heuristic. Meanwhile, players chose to shoot more frequently in low...

Recent evidence of the hot hand in sport-where success breeds success in a positive recency of successful shots, for instance-indicates that this pattern does not actually exist. Yet the belief persists. We used 2 studies to explore the effects of framing on the hot hand belief in sport. We looked at the effect of sport experience and task on the perception of baseball pitch behavior as well as the hot hand belief and free-throw behavior in basketball. Study 1 asked participants to designate outcomes with different alternation rates as the result of baseball pitches or coin tosses. Study 2 examined basketball free-throw behavior and measured predicted success before each shot as well as general belief in the hot hand pattern. The results of Study 1 illustrate that experience and stimulus alternation rates influence the perception of chance in human performance tasks. Study 2 shows that physically performing an act and making judgments are related. Specifically, beliefs were related ...